The rooster's first crow

Greetings, let me be honest about myself; I'm crazy about numbers. Before I even knew what they meant, the stock market page was my favorite part of the newspaper, just for the sheer number of numbers. The backs of baseball cards were another favorite hunting ground for numbers. I, for example, probably could have quoted you Andy Van Slykes' batting average and homerun totals from 1985 until sometime in 1986. I could entertain myself for hours with a calculator. Now, as an adult, this preoccupation has leant itself to some odd, some might even say obsessive, behavior. For example, I knew I could track all the results at Keeneland over a few years and arrive at a formula that would guarantee I went home a winner every week, soon quitting my job and becoming a philanthropic millionaire. This endeavor cost me not a little time and money.

I am not alone. Today, one of the most important mathematics techniques invented in all of mankind is what is known as the RPI, or Ratings Percentage Index. There are a few different variations on this method, such as the Sagarin rating, which crazies like myself like to argue over. The reason such a sophisticated tool was developed; to help so-called experts decide which college basketball teams should be invited to play in the annual tournament. There must have been a stat-head on the tournament committee who, like myself with no talent for evaluating basketball talent subjectively, called upon his stat-head friends to come up with a guaranteed method for objectively comparing teams with grossly different talent levels, styles of play, personnel, competition, injuries, and on and on. Though the goal may have seemed large and unattainable at the time, stat-heads conquered so completely that non-believers today are chastised in the MSM and at the water cooler alike. My only question is "How did I not see that Dayton was the 24th best team in the country before?"

Alas, let me approach the point. People of similar mental defect as myself also tend to be interested in chance, fate, and randomness in the universe, and are predisposed to be predicters and gamblers. So we all now collectively turn our attention to that greatest of tournaments, March Madness. The utmost sage, supposedly, of this time of year is the great and venerable Joe Lunardi, who in his weekly "Bracketology" (don't you love how scientific, even mathematic, it sounds) predicts the field of 64 teams that will be competing in the tournament. No wait, I believe I mispoke, he predicts what teams would be in the field of 64 if the tournament was held tomorrow. WTF, I don't care about if the tournament were held tomorrow, I only care about the tournament that will be held March 21 through April 7. For all I care, Mr. Lunardi can keep any predictions otherwise to himself. But, with his prophet like status, he dare not be incorrect. I on the other hand, thrive off of being wrong so here is my unabashedly RPI-influenced predictions for the rest of the year and how those results will be interpreted by the selection committee in setting the field of 64.

Let us start with the conference champions and the so-called "locks" who could only miss the big dance, rightly or wrongly, due to force majeur. They are;

Big East: Louisville, Georgetown, U Conn, Notre Dame, Marquette
ACC: North Carolina, Duke
CUSA: Memphis
SEC: Tennessee
Atl 10: Xavier
Big 12: Kansas, Texas
PAC 10: UCLA, Stanford
Big 10: Purdue, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St.
Horizon: Butler
WCC: St. Mary's, Gonzaga
MVC: Drake

Then their are the conference winners of conferences which would not get any at-large bids;

AEC: UMBC
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Portland State
Big South: Winthrop (whats the preoccupation with "Big" in conference titles anyway?)
Big West: Cal State Northridge
CAA: Colonial Williamsburg
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Harlem
MAC: Kent State
MEAC: Morgan State
MWC: The Morman State College of Utah
NC: Robert Morris
OVC: Austin Peay
Patriot League: The School of the Americas
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Lamar (the billboard people?)
SAC (he,he): Alabama St. College of the Arts
Summit: Oral Roberts
WAC: Boise St

Then there is the Sun Belt, with both W. Ky and South Alabama looking like bubble teams, lets assume both are in for simplicity. Thats a total of 43 of 64, leaving 21 bids at-large.

1: Vanderbilt (25-6, 10-6) tight losses on the road to Ark. and at home to Tennessee, and that drubbing of UK, along with a 8-2 final 10 should make them first in
2: Pitt (21-9, 10-8) need a road win at Notre Dame, Syracuse or West Va to finish 3-3, but the RPI loves these guys?
3: Washington St (24-6, 12-6) only a tough loss at Stanford prevents them from finishing 8-0, watch out for the Cougars (thats what the press will be saying at least)
4: Oklahoma (22-9, 10-6) pounding by Texas prevents the sooner-be-dead-than-Oklahomans from finishing 8-0.
5: Kansas St (20-9, 11-5) the loss at Nebraska makes a win at either Baylor or Iowa St critical, but I think they'll win both
6: Arkansas (22-8, 11-5) a road loss at UK is all that prevents this Hog team that can finally win on the road from finishing 6-0. Finish 1st in the west and see a 6 seed. Soooooooooooooey!
7: Clemson (22-7, 11-5) 4-0 finish with win at Maryland and the Orange Crush get back to the big dance
8: Rhode Island (25-6, 11-5) finishing the year five-and-oh makes you proud to be a Rhody
9: UNLV (23-6, 11-3) A road loss to New Mexico makes the Gamblers 4-1. The Mormons' chief rivals make thug-till-death Greg Anthony proud.
10: Texas A&M (22-8, 9-7) a win at Baylor is paramount, a win at Oklahoma or at home against Kansas would be nice boost
11: Miami (22-8, 9-7) 7-1 down the stretch with wins over Duke and Maryland are nice, but doesnt' help condo prices in the metro does it?
12: Villanova (19-11, 9-9) a win at home vs either U Conn or Marquette makes this team 5-2 down the stretch in the Big E(asy)
13: W Va (20-10, 10-8) riding big wins over Providence, dePaul and St. Johns, the miners' daughters finish 3-3 and limp into the tournament on the committee's east coast bias
14: Houston (24-6, 13-3); the oilers go undefeated absentia Memphis in CUSA
15: Wake Forest (20-9, 10-6) 7-1 down the stretch with 3 road victories and home wins over Duke and Maryland
16: Mississippi (22-9, 7-9) 4-2 coming down the stretch to leapfrog Miss St. into contention
17: Kentucky (18-11, 12-4) 6-1 down the stretch, with a close loss to Tenn on the road and the committee saves UK any more embarrassment by letting them in the tournament with an 8 seed
18: Florida (22-9, 9-7) 4-2 with close losses to Tenn at home and at UK is enough to get the young crocs the SECs surprising 6th bid. Is there an SEC bias after it's recent success? Regardless, we know we'll here about one on SS by ACC's pet-shop boy Bilas. Will anyone be listening?
19: USC (19-11, 10-8) Will win at either Arizona or Arizona St, win over Stanford in the finale lifts them higher
20: Arizona (18-12, 9-9) need wins at Washington and Oregon St, and either at Oregon or home over USC
21: Arizona St (18-12, 9-9) need wins at Washington and Oregon St, and either at Oregon or home over USC (sound familiar?)

In case one of these falters

20: UAB (22-10, 11-5) UAB, Memphis and Houston combine for three losses to CUSA teams outside the triangle, and all are by UAB, can't stand the loss at UTEP!
21: Baylor (19-10, 8-8) must win one of the following home against K-State, home agains A&M or away against Tech.

Given what I've had to say about numbers, of course I have to mention my astonishment at this phenomena of Jon G guessing the spread correctly in two straight, the chances of that happening were exactly 31,425-1. Wow!

Rooster